US Retail Sales September 2026: Release Time and Data Guide
The Census Bureau will publish its advance US retail sales estimate for September 2026 on Thursday, October 15, at 6:00 PM IST. This guide explains the India-time release, the survey’s nominal-sales definition, the August baseline, confidence intervals, revisions and the later full September report.
US retail sales September 2026: the confirmed release details
The US Census Bureau is scheduled to publish the advance US retail sales estimate for September 2026 on Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time. That is 6:00 p.m. India Standard Time on the same date. The release will be an early estimate for the September reference month, not the final monthly report.
As of the 13 October 2026 reference date, the September result is not available. There is no verified September headline number, consensus comparison or market reaction to report yet. Before publication, focus on what the advance release includes and which later revisions can change the first number.
| Item | Confirmed detail | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference month | September 2026 | September data, October publication |
| Advance release | Thursday, October 15, 2026, 8:30 a.m. EDT | This is the early Monthly Retail Trade estimate |
| India time | 6:00 p.m. IST on October 15 | EDT is UTC−4; IST is UTC+5:30, a 9.5-hour difference |
| Later full monthly release | Tuesday, November 17, 2026 | The September Monthly Retail Trade report follows the advance estimate |
What time is the US retail sales release in India?
Indian readers should use 6:00 p.m. IST on Thursday, October 15. The Census schedule states 8:30 a.m. for the September advance report, and the October 2026 calendar is using Eastern Daylight Time. In October, New York is on UTC−4 while India remains on UTC+5:30, so adding nine hours and 30 minutes gives 6:00 p.m. in India.
The date does not roll over. A reader checking after 6:00 p.m. IST should look for the Census release page and its attached tables. The New York Fed calendar is useful as a cross-check, but it labels calendar times as tentative and subject to immediate change; the Census schedule is the primary date-and-time reference for this report.
| Clock | Time | Conversion note |
|---|---|---|
| United States Eastern time | 8:30 a.m. EDT | Census scheduled time |
| UTC | 12:30 p.m. UTC | EDT is four hours behind UTC |
| India | 6:00 p.m. IST | EDT plus 9 hours 30 minutes |
What does the Census advance retail-sales estimate measure?
The Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey, or MARTS, gives an early national estimate of sales by kind of business for retail and food-service establishments located in the United States. A retail establishment is one that sells merchandise to final consumers. The series is organized by North American Industry Classification System categories, so the release can separate areas such as motor-vehicle dealers, food and beverage stores, gasoline stations, nonstore retailers and food services.
The headline is a sales-dollar measure. Census adjusts it for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. That distinction is central: a higher nominal sales total can reflect a mix of more units sold, higher prices, or both. The release itself does not convert the number into inflation-adjusted personal consumption.
| Feature | What the September advance release tells you | What it does not tell you by itself |
|---|---|---|
| Coverage | US retail and food-service establishments | Household spending across every service category |
| Adjustment | Seasonal, holiday and trading-day effects | Inflation-adjusted or real consumption |
| Output | Dollar sales and percentage changes by business type | A complete explanation of why a category moved |
Advance estimate versus the later full September report
The October 15 publication is called an advance estimate because it is built from a smaller, faster survey operation. Census says the advance sample contains approximately 4,800 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey sample of about 13,000 units. Those responses are weighted and used in a link-relative estimator that compares current-month sales with the previous month for units reporting both periods.
Census says the advance estimate is revised one month later by the Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey. For September 2026, the release schedule lists November 17 as the full Monthly Retail Trade report date. The first number should therefore be labelled advance, not final, even when it is presented to one decimal place.
| Release | September 2026 timing | Data status |
|---|---|---|
| Advance Monthly Retail Trade | October 15, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT | Early estimate from the advance sample |
| Monthly Retail Trade report | November 17, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. for sales | Later report for the September sales month |
| Inventories in the monthly report | November 17, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. | Separate timing listed by Census for inventories |
The latest official baseline: what August 2026 showed
The last available advance report, released on September 16, put August 2026 US retail and food-services sales at $773.9 billion. Census reported a 1.2 percent increase from July, with a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point 90 percent confidence interval, and a 6.0 percent increase from August 2025, with a plus-or-minus 0.5 percentage-point interval.
The August release also revised July’s month-to-month change. The earlier figure was down 0.6 percent with a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval; the revised figure was down 0.5 percent with a plus-or-minus 0.2 percentage-point interval. This is a concrete reminder that the prior month can change at the same time that a new advance month is published.
| August 2026 measure | Published value | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Total retail and food services sales | $773.9 billion | Seasonally, holiday and trading-day adjusted; not price adjusted |
| Month over month | +1.2% ± 0.4 percentage points | 90% interval spans 0.8% to 1.6% using the published estimate and margin |
| Year over year | +6.0% ± 0.5 percentage points | 90% interval spans 5.5% to 6.5% using the published estimate and margin |
Which September tables should readers check first?
Start with the total retail and food-services sales figure and its month-to-month percentage change. Then check the exclusions that help separate broad spending from categories with unusual price or timing effects: total sales excluding motor-vehicle and parts dealers, excluding gasoline stations, and excluding both groups. Census publishes those comparison measures in the advance release tables.
The next step is to look at the business categories rather than stopping at the headline. Nonstore retailers, food and beverage stores, general merchandise stores, gasoline stations, motor-vehicle and parts dealers, and food services can move differently. A category table does not explain every cause, but it shows where the aggregate change was recorded.
| Check in the release | Question it answers | Common reading error |
|---|---|---|
| Total sales | Did the broad monthly sales estimate rise or fall? | Treating nominal sales as real consumption |
| Ex-auto and ex-gasoline measures | How did the total look without selected volatile categories? | Calling an exclusion a separate official headline series without naming it |
| Kind-of-business rows | Which retail or food-service groups changed? | Assuming the category change explains the cause |
Why the release is not the same as inflation-adjusted consumption
A sales report records the dollars collected by covered businesses. Because Census does not adjust the advance series for price changes, the September result will be a nominal measure. If prices for a product group move sharply, the dollar total can change even when the physical volume of goods sold changes less, or in the opposite direction.
That is why the retail release should be read beside, not substituted for, price data. The US CPI September 2026 release guide covers consumer prices, while the US PPI September 2026 guide covers producer-price measures. They answer different questions and use different statistical programs.
| Dataset | Primary question | Price treatment in the headline |
|---|---|---|
| Census advance retail sales | How much did covered establishments report in sales? | Not adjusted for price changes |
| Consumer Price Index | How did consumer prices change for the CPI basket? | Measures prices, not retail-sales dollars |
| Producer Price Index | How did selling prices received by producers change? | Measures producer prices, not the retail total |
How to read confidence intervals and revisions
The plus-or-minus figure beside a percentage change is not an optional footnote. Census describes it as a 90 percent confidence interval derived from sampling variability. If the interval includes zero, Census says there is insufficient statistical evidence at that level to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. The direction shown in a headline can therefore be less certain than the one-decimal display suggests.
The August example makes the point. The reported 1.2 percent month-to-month increase had a published margin of 0.4 percentage points, so the interval ran from 0.8 to 1.6 percent. The 6.0 percent year-to-year increase had a margin of 0.5 points, producing a 5.5 to 6.5 percent interval. Those are calculations from the reported estimate and margin, not extra Census forecasts.
| Reader action | Correct interpretation |
|---|---|
| Read the margin | Treat the estimate and its 90% interval as one statistical statement |
| Check whether zero is inside | If yes, the reported change is not statistically distinguishable from zero at that level |
| Keep the release label | Advance, preliminary and revised are different data vintages |
A factual checklist for the October 15 release
When the September file is published, record the release timestamp and keep the official PDF or table link beside the numbers. First capture total sales, the month-to-month change and its margin of error. Then record the year-to-year change, the ex-auto and ex-gasoline comparisons, and any category values that are relevant to the story.
Next, check the footnotes. Confirm that the table is for September 2026, that the figures are seasonally and holiday/trading-day adjusted where stated, and that they are not adjusted for price changes. Note whether a previous month has been revised. If a table marks a value as preliminary or revised, preserve that label in any later update.
| Order | What to record | Source location |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Total sales and month-to-month change with margin | Census advance release headline and tables |
| 2 | Year-to-year change and comparison measures | Census Table 2 and release text |
| 3 | Category changes and data-vintage labels | Census Table 1 and footnotes |
How this release fits a wider economic calendar
US retail sales arrives during a busy week of scheduled US indicators. The New York Fed calendar lists the October 15 advance retail-sales release alongside other official releases, and it lists imports and exports plus industrial production on October 16. Those releases cover different concepts. A retail-sales number should not be merged with a price index or an industrial-output measure simply because the publication dates are close.
For metals and commodity readers, the disciplined approach is to keep the series definitions separate. Retail sales describe covered consumer-facing sales in dollar terms; industrial production describes output and capacity; import and export price indexes describe traded-goods price changes. The US industrial production September 2026 guide and US import and export prices guide are separate pages for those releases.
This article is a calendar and measurement guide. It contains no trading recommendation, no forecast of the September result and no prediction about how any asset, currency or commodity will respond.
| Release | Scheduled date | Measurement focus |
|---|---|---|
| Advance US retail sales | October 15, 2026 | Retail and food-services sales in nominal dollars |
| US industrial production | October 16, 2026 | Industrial output, capacity and utilization |
| US import and export prices | October 16, 2026 | Prices of traded goods and services |
US industrial production September 2026 guide
Reader guide
Article questions, answered
Short answers to common reader questions based on the reporting above.
When will US retail sales for September 2026 be released?
The Census Bureau schedule lists the advance September 2026 US retail sales release for Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, which is 6:00 p.m. IST.
Is the September 2026 US retail sales result known yet?
No. At the 13 October 2026 reference date, September has not been released. Do not add a result, consensus comparison or market reaction before Census publishes it.
What does the advance retail-sales report measure?
It provides an early national estimate of sales by kind of business for US retail and food-service establishments. The headline is adjusted for seasonal, holiday and trading-day effects, but not for price changes.
Why is it called an advance estimate?
It uses approximately 4,800 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey sample, allowing a faster early estimate. Census revises it later.
What was the latest official US retail-sales baseline before September?
For August 2026, Census reported $773.9 billion in total retail and food-services sales, up 1.2% month over month with a ±0.4 percentage-point margin and up 6.0% year over year with a ±0.5 percentage-point margin.
Does a rise in retail sales prove that real consumer spending increased?
No. The series is not adjusted for price changes, so a dollar increase can reflect prices, quantities or both.
When is the later full September retail report due?
The Census release schedule lists the September 2026 Monthly Retail Trade report for Tuesday, November 17, 2026. The schedule gives 8:30 a.m. for sales and 10:00 a.m. for inventories.
Sources and further reading
These references support the factual context used in this article. Links open the original publisher.